East London Line Business Case

Contract value

£45,000

Key features

• Option development and testing
• Business Case development
• Appraisal

Skills utilised

• Passenger Demand Forecasting using TfL’s Railplan model
• Service Option Testing
• Operational Costing
• Provision of demand and crowding information

Project detail

The East London Line Project (ELLX) was under development for a number of years. In late 2004 ownership of the project transferred to Transport for London (TfL) from the Strategic Rail Authority. At the time of the transfer TfL London Rail wanted to understand the business case for the project and also confirm the case for the further development of the East London Line. In October 2004 Faber Maunsell, working for TfL London Rail, developed a business case to establish the true impacts of the scheme, and identified a two phase approach as the way forward for the project development. Following this work, the decision was made to develop the scheme with Phase 1 (consisting of the extension from Dalston to Crystal Palace, West Croydon and New Cross) being a fully funded part of the TfL Business Plan which benefited from the Mayor’s ability to raise finance through prudential borrowing.

In late 2005 Invitations to Tender for Rolling Stock and the Main Construction Works for Phase 1 were released, and it became important to confirm that the right scope of project was being delivered by TfL. This required an update of the business case, taking account of the latest capital and operating cost data, and a change to the capital cost spend profile. The demand forecasts developed using TfL's Railplan model that underpin the business case were updated to reflect the latest thinking on the project scope and for the first time a consistent set of forecasts was provided to feed into rolling stock design, station and infrastructure time and the business case.

The Winter 2005 update also considered, as sensitivity tests, potential for changes to scope relating to the provision of five car trains rather than four, as well as examining a higher service frequency over the Phase 1 route.

In Summer 2006 TfL undertook a further update to the business case with the opportunity being taken to include a number of recent updates that feed into the business case such as capital costs, operating costs and background service assumptions. There has also been the need to provide ongoing support to the project team including discussions with other parties such as the ORR.

Contact

David Warner: david.warner@fabermaunsell.com