Climate change and sustainable energy solutions

By Richard John, Jon Lorentz and Jim Zaniboni

The scientific evidence is now overwhelming: climate change represents a very serious global risk, and it demands an urgent global response. In October 2006, Sir Nicholas Stern, former chief economist of the World Bank, published a review of the likely economic impacts of global warming. His report stated that climate change could shrink the global economy by up to 20%.

Without action, up to 200 million people could become refugees as their homes are hit by drought or flood. The report highlighted the need to take action now, and that such action would have to be coordinated at an international level if it was to be effective. To stabilize at a manageable level, emissions would need to be brought under control in the next 20 years, and fall between 1% and 3% in the following years. The report calculated that this would cost 1% of GDP, but that this figure would rise significantly if there was any delay in taking action.

The economic statistics are dramatic, but the anticipated physical impacts of climate change are positively alarming: glaciers could melt, increasing flood risk and reducing local supply of fresh water; crop yields – particularly in Africa – could decline; up to 40% of species could face extinction as climate belts alter; and extreme weather events, such as an increase in hurricane intensity, could become more frequent.

The chief culprit behind this threat to the planet is carbon dioxide emissions, which have already pushed up global temperatures by half a degree Celsius – and will continue to do so in the future unless the requisite steps are taken. The other ‘greenhouse gases’ – methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, water vapor and halocarbons – also contribute to global warming.

The global population is facing what is very possibly the biggest challenge it has ever confronted. As professional technologists, scientists, engineers and environmentalists, however, we are effectively the front line of the human response to these challenges, and we have a responsibility to use our technology, skills and resources to ensure that today’s projects are constructed using methods that will ease rather than exacerbate the situation, and that tomorrow’s projects are designed to conform with best environmental practice.

Climate change will influence buildings and other construction projects in two ways.

Firstly, regulatory measures instigated by governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will mean that we have to make fundamental changes to the way that energy is generated, and to the way that it is delivered and consumed by the building and industrial sectors. Actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are referred to as ‘mitigation measures’. These measures not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but they also provide an opportunity to take advantage of a greater diversity of energy sources, including those with a smaller carbon footprint.

Secondly, the climate will continue to change for at least the next 50 years. Consequently, new buildings will have to be constructed to different performance parameters, and existing buildings and infrastructure will have to be adapted to function effectively under a different range of climatic conditions. In coastal areas, for example, buildings may have to be adapted to cope with rising sea levels. Adjusting to climate change is termed ‘adaptation’.

To put the challenge of carbon reduction into perspective, it has been predicted that, if present policies remain unchanged, world energy demand will increase by over 50% between now and 2030, and energy-related CO2 emissions will climb by 52%.

These trends imply that there must be a very significant drive to improve energy efficiency, and to move to sources of energy that result in lower atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases.

Mitigation measures

We have worked with a number of central and local government organizations to help develop progressive carbon reduction regulatory environments. As a result of this work, we have first-hand experience of various carbon reduction policies that can be expected to be introduced around the world, such as:

• Developing stronger energy standards for new and existing industrial and building projects
• Mandatory disclosure of building energy consumption
• Carbon trading/offsetting
• Encouragement of renewable energy generation, and carbon capture from power generating stations, through the establishment of national incentive regimes
• Planning requirements for maximum on-site generation of renewable energy
• Specifications for government-supported development projects that require, for example, higher than normal energy efficiency standards.

Our experience of helping to develop government policies and private sector implementation plans provides us with a knowledge base that, in turn, helps us guide our clients with sound advice on how future climate change regulations are likely to impact on their business. We do this by carrying out construction and renewable energy projects that are specifically targeted at reducing carbon emissions. At a business level, we also help organizations to analyze their carbon footprint identify priorities for reducing that footprint, and with the implementation of those projects.

Adaptation issues

Although it is accepted that the climate will continue to change significantly over this century, it is not possible to predict exactly what those changes will be, although there is increasing information about the probable changes that will take place at a regional level. Climate change will affect the way that projects are designed and operated, and more extreme weather will have a significant impact on flood defenses, structural stability (greater wind loading and higher risk of subsidence), which in turn will influence future design, construction and remediation activities.

Delivering solutions

We have established an energy solutions framework which brings together the unique capabilities of our specialist technology groups and the strong local presence provided by our global reach. This framework is divided into three categories: carbon management, sustainability and energy efficiency, and clean energy.

Carbon management
Climate change and associated regulatory policies, combined with energy supply issues and price rises, are already having an impact on the performance and valuation of businesses worldwide. While market forces will continue to influence energy prices, governments are moving to implement coordinated regulatory policies aimed at encouraging much greater levels of energy efficiency while at the same time promoting the end goal of ‘carbon-neutrality’.

Carbon management represents a positive approach by which organizations can understand, control, and reduce carbon emissions resulting from their activities.

Carbon management solutions include:

• An assessment of an organization’s carbon footprint
• The development of an action plan with the hard measures required to reduce energy use and associated emissions
• Management changes required to ensure that implementation takes place in an effective manner.

Corporations are now recognizing that an early commitment to carbon management, sustainability and the wider goals of corporate social responsibility brings significant competitive advantage as well as tangible benefits to the bottom line.

Energy efficiency and sustainable buildings
Energy efficiency in the built environment is attracting a lot of attention. And rightly so, since commercial and residential buildings account for approximately 40% of end-use energy consumption. There is broad acknowledgement that developing comprehensive efficiency strategies for these buildings is the fastest and most cost-effective action we can take to reduce the demand for energy and reduce carbon emissions.

To realize the full benefits of sustainability and energy efficiency, strong energy policies are required which stipulate building codes and standards that change the investment patterns in the built environment. From the Kyoto Protocol to the European Performance of Buildings Directive to the Executive Orders being implemented by individual U.S. states, the market drivers are in position and starting to take effect.

Clean energy technologies
Greenhouse gas emissions cannot be substantially reduced through energy efficiency alone, because the rate of worldwide economic growth will continue to boost energy demand, resulting in ever higher carbon emissions.

To counter this trend, many countries are introducing mechanisms to support the development of clean energy technologies. Simultaneously, we are seeing dramatic changes in the commercial viability of energy derived from clean sources such as solar cells, wind turbines and biofuels. As a significant bonus, these clean energy resources enhance a country’s energy security by reducing its reliance on fossil fuels.

Although the extent of future damage by climate change remains uncertain, we believe that the promotion of clean energy technologies that use limited resources prudently or tap sustainable cycles of energy flows is of paramount importance to maintain the sustainability of the global environment.

Towards a low-carbon future

For nearly 30 years, AECOM has been a leader in pioneering low-carbon renewable energy technologies, including wind, solar, geothermal, hydropower, biomass, biogas and landfill gas as well as projects involving biofuels technologies. For these and many other renewable energy projects, AECOM also performs comprehensive environmental impact studies to ensure the identification and mitigation of environmental impacts, allowing the projects to be constructed and operated while sustaining the sensitive environments of the region.

In keeping with the objective of “consistently delivering outstanding solutions that create a better world in which to work and live”, our global operations are leading the way in progressive policy development, sustainable building designs and the deployment of advanced clean energy technologies, to assist our clients develop a low carbon future. At the same time AECOM companies are implementing their own plans to achieve our goals for sustainability.

The world is just beginning to confront the issues of climate change, energy security and associated impacts on individual economies. We have the technical expertise, scientific knowledge and professional resources to respond to these challenges and provide solutions anywhere in the world.