Changing attitudes to transport

By Denis Johnston, John Vincent and Dick White

Transport touches everyone’s lives, either directly or indirectly. It connects people to opportunities, and producers to consumers. It has a profound effect on the economic and environmental well-being of communities and nations. The choices that individuals and businesses make have collective consequences for societies and for our planet.

Future demand for road, rail, air and shipping movements are forecast to exceed the current limits of supply. Existing infrastructure requires maintenance expenditure, more infrastructure needs to be built and demand needs to be managed, if we are to avoid escalating congestion costs and create a sustainable future.

We believe that the use of existing capacity and the provision of new capacity should be guided by pricing considerations that reflect the true economic value and environmental impacts of transport as a commodity.

Modern solutions such as congestion pricing, value capture and private sector financing will play an important role in the future delivery of transport services. Technology will be employed to guide individual choice, to create more efficient network operations and to reduce harmful environmental emissions. Within the overall strategic approach there will also need to be room for initiatives to reduce demand through options such as teleworking, through pricing considerations that influence journey decisions, and through integrated land-use transportation planning.

As networks reach saturation point, additional demand may however have profound consequences. In cities, for example, the level of service provided by transport systems helps define the city’s quality of life and influences its competitive position. But as more people are attracted to the city, and as demand for travel increases, the quality of service and environment may suffer, reducing the attraction that once existed.

The challenges raised by moving more and more people, goods and services across a city, or across the globe, will be perceived differently by location, circumstance and observer. These challenges can, however, be crystallized into four critical questions:

For developed nations: How will we pay for the maintenance, replacement and incremental improvement of existing transport systems?

Traditional tax revenue sources are increasingly being consumed by government commitments to health, education and security. Simply increasing tax revenues that flow through and may be reallocated within a central public purse, may not be politically acceptable or effective.

For emerging nations: How can we best satisfy the individual and collective aspiration for greater mobility and accessibility in a sustainable manner?

The economy of China, for example, is growing at approximately 9% per annum; in recent years, car ownership, which elsewhere is linked to economic growth, has grown at between 10 and 20% per year. The pursuit of accessibility also results in migration to urban areas. A recent United Nations report forecast that by 2015, there will be 22 metropolitan cities with populations over 10million, and by 2030 61% of the world’s population will be urbanized.

For the global economy: How can we best deliver the new capacity required to facilitate economic growth whilst minimizing associated environmental impacts?

World trade is growing at around 8% to 10% per annum and will soon outstrip the existing capacity of our ports, airports and their associated surface access systems. A clear expression of this problem can be seen in the capacity of the Panama Canal, which is now the subject of a major upgrade.

For everyone: How can we reduce the impact of the transport sector on global warming?

Transport contributes 14% of all the world’s greenhouse gas (mostly CO2) emissions, and 22% of all energy emissions. Over three-quarters of transport emissions are generated by road transport, whilst aviation emissions are the fastest growing in the transport sector.

Solutions to local and global transport challenges are constantly being developed and tested through the work of our planners, economists and engineers around the world. Contrasting practices and policies are being deployed in North America, Europe and Asia, enabling us to study relative impacts and the effectiveness of individual solutions in different environments.

Changing patterns of responsibility are emerging for owning and operating our transport networks. The private sector has historically been pivotal in the provision of air transport and freight services although in recent years this interest has extended into the ownership of associated infrastructure. Similarly, whilst Governments have traditionally been largely responsible for the highway and public transport networks, in recent years the private sector has become involved in the ownership and operation of road and rail infrastructure under leasing or concession agreements.

The search for solutions

Pricing transport services correctly
Economists have been consistently putting the case for efficient pricing of transport systems – and it is time to listen and act.

Past experience clearly illustrates that inefficient pricing mechanisms lead to poor outcomes. For example:

• Urban sprawl: Sprawling American cities are a direct result of consumer choices being influenced by low fuel prices and low land prices that do not include the cost of infrastructure needed to service the developments. These cities provide only very limited travel choice options for their residents and are now very expensive to maintain and operate.
• Rising congestion: Failure to include the cost of external factors such as noise and accidents has led to consumers choosing car travel over public transport, with the resulting increase in congestion.
• Increased pollution: Similarly, failure to include the cost of external factors such as carbon emissions in the price of air travel has resulted in low cost airlines becoming the preferred mode for short-haul travel over rail, and accelerated the growth of ‘food miles’.

Lessons learned in Europe from charging heavy vehicles on long distance motorways, from London and Stockholm on inner city congestion-charging, and from Australia on urban toll roads, are building up a body of experience that supports the economic theory of road pricing.

Pricing must be a key component of a sustainable future for transport – not just road pricing but a consistent approach across all modes.

Innovative financing for new projects
Pricing our transport systems correctly is vital – but it is not enough. Additional capacity is also needed to enhance our transport networks and enable them to operate efficiently. Within a consistently priced transport system, revenue streams are created that allow for a disciplined investment strategy to be developed by governments and by investors.

Current experience in PFI/PPP procurement methods in Europe, Australia and Asia shows that legislative and legal systems can be made to operate effectively. A precursor to sparking the interest of the international investment community is the implementation of a reliable legal framework within a stable political system. With a reliable legislative environment in place, the private sector is likely to participate enthusiastically in the development and financing of transport solutions.

Technology advances
History tells us that technology can make major contributions to resolving our transport challenges. The following technological improvements will be part of our future:

• In-home information systems to influence trip patterns and modal choice
• In-vehicle information systems to assist passenger and driver choices
• Cleaner fuels and more fuel-efficient engines
• Control of vehicle behavior with regard to speeds, vehicle separation and braking to increase capacity and enhance safety
• Container tracking and logistics planning to speed the passage of goods.

Technology can enhance the quality of transport services and consequently influence usage. It can also be used to increase capacity and improve safety and security. In many instances, it is a prerequisite to the introduction of efficient pricing. The issue is not one of the availability of technological solutions, but of the will and confidence to use them.

Behavioral change
Behavioral change is difficult – people like their freedom of choice. But when the collective consequences of individual freedoms are negative for everyone then governments need to act – as has been shown with the introduction of seat belt laws and driver alcohol limits. After initial resistance on the grounds of individual freedom to choose, these measures have now become generally accepted as good public policy.

To achieve the necessary environmental outcomes of transport policies will require regulatory action and direct ‘selling’ of the social and global benefits of behavioral change. Changing attitudes takes time, and transport professionals need to make the consequences of transport policy options understood to both decision makers and the community at large.

Limiting the role of the automobile
Many of the world’s major cities currently have car ownership levels that are low by Western standards. In these cities, mobility aspirations can be met by high density developments which may be served by walking, cycling and public transit systems. However, planning and regulatory frameworks, backed by strong government policy enforcement, will be needed to achieve sustainable solutions.

Outlook
There are two overriding lessons from the past that should influence our future actions. The first is that providing individuals with unrestrained freedom to choose how, when and by what mode they travel does not produce sustainable outcomes in transport markets where prices are distorted.

The second is that to address the distortion in the market we should move towards a pricing regime that captures true costs and addresses external impacts.

AECOM views the transport world through trained eyes, positioned in all corners of the globe. We can see the mistakes of the past and the success stories. The challenges of the future will be met by the alignment of the best ideas with the willingness to act.